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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp
APM 1.535+13.7%12:15 PM EST
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To: Don Earl who wrote (11025)12/16/1997 11:24:00 PM
From: SeanS  Read Replies (2) of 12298
 
Don,
You seem to share alot of my recently emerging cautious optimism
towards APMs' future prospects. People seem to be overlooking
some of the positive aspects of this current mess. As you pointed
out APM will profit greatly from the decline in foreign currencies,
not only will any foreign loans made to the company be cheaper to
repay, but the companies payroll expenses should decline considerably.
7500 of the companies 9000 employees work overseas, mostly in Asia.

People have made much of the recent order cancellation from WDC
and others. From the limited amount of contract law that I have
studied,I would expect that APM is due some hefty cancellation
penalties. Isn't that usually the case?

Now people are greatly excited about the suppossed First Call
estimates for this company. Now I ask you, how could anyone
accurately estimate future earnings when there are so many macro.
uncertainties and variables involved right now?
I took a couse on securities analysis and evaluation in college
years ago and the idea that sticks in my mind the most is how
inaccurate the procedure is. Even is there is no manipulation,
the analyst is basically just taking an educated guess, based mostly
on information the company itself gives him/her.
Finally as something of a contrarian investor, I love the way comment
on this thread has really dried up, and the other APM thread has
evolved into a contest bulletin board. Rallies seem to often come
out of nowhere when the small investor is looking the other way.
What do you think?
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