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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Trends & Market Chatter (Investment Ideas)

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To: benwood who wrote (1469)	12/16/2014 1:45:31 PM
From: Fintas	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 4369

Benwood nice post. Re Drys I think it's 81% down SMILE After 132% UP. Let's not forget about ORIG too. And if one wanted to break it down and consider ORIG cost basis.. the UPS and the DOWNS or what has been accumulated re covered calls in both.. Man I need a numbers guy. But wait .. I am a numbers guy. I could replace the name drys with GLW, FNSR, MAXTOR, JDSU, CIENA, and others. All owned by me at one time or other. Each was part of a portfolio. Each had a % against the portfolio and each carried a high beta. So I'm used to up and down. That should be obvious to any who know what I do. Heck BAC is another ex. But here's the important detail.. It's what I DO. I can afford the risk and I do the work to be able to understand what is happening whether it be due to market, a decline in sector. OH who remembers dark fiber discussions. Disc dirves are dead for ever. (Anyone look at WDC and the NEW Seagate lately). How about oil service and Schumberger in the teens. Hell how about POG. and the move up from 167 to the 880 and then back to the 200's.. Look at how LONG it took to get back to 880. And when I kicked out my gold at 1900 and change. That was over 30 years.... And the number of negative and positive stuff over the years I had to listen. And heck after I sold the number of negs. Yet I sold.. I do know how to sell. I don't get into but it's going to 3000.. Yes maybe but that near 2 years down for POG is no pimple. What I like to discuss with other longs is. What cause you to miss it. Just as I missed Nus from 38 to 140. I had it from the teens. NEVER saw 140. But at 140 I sure as hell saw 38 again. and voila. The point is the dry bulks and rigs have been in the poop for a bit more than 3 years. And every year was the year things could turn and go. And every year more of the same crap.. Saw it with the steel. It doesn't botther me for as I said.. It's just one position. It's a small % of the overall portfolio. The ONLY risk is that the longer a sector takes to turn, the more chance a stock goes thru different steps. Whether it be a reverse split or some shark forces a merger or an acquisition. The disc drive sector went thru major consolidation. So did the Independant power providers. Yet as a stated long when one reads me what should be noticed is.. DO I SUPPORT the position with the information to help not just me work thru a downside or do I do a hit and run. I'll stay with DRYS until it plays out. Just as I have done with many. I'll size in if I want. I'll just watch if I want. But at no time will I do I changed my mind. Usually at some point a merger, a take ya private or the stock turns up on it's own. The caveat with drys is ORIG. Yet there's also the tankers that are planned to be IPO'D. But you are correct.. Drys and a 81% drop is not for the weak in the knees. However as long as I see the positives of the world re shipping and the need for crude or movement of crude etc. I'll be positive. Power plants didn't go bye bye. They just ended up in someone elses portfolio. Now as to the SPX. I too try to keep that all objective. I will sell other core as they reach a number, a timeline, or use covered calls. I'm pretty open about such as I drop big hints. As I did with JDSU, BAC and recently with a couple of others . When I start doing the buy this etc.. That means I want to sell ya something.. Either stock or if decided covered calls. I'm not so sure we are going to just keep on keeping re the indexes. I just see too many things that can cause things to be like the mid 60's to the 70's. Be well. Fintas

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