Guess the estimate...
Normally I never post estimates, but I just spent too much
time reviewing numbers. I felt I needed to see if anyone
agreed. I hate it when people just post a number without
some form of how they arrived at the number.
I just spent the last 3 hours reviewing the financials
for BROD for the last 3 years. The difficult part was figuring
out the 4th qtr numbers, since BROD did not submit a 10-Q for
4th qtr 97 or 4th qtr 96(just a 10-k)
The plus side is BROD reported the 1st qtr in Jan of last year
instead of Dec(ie this year)
Based on one report that BROD should reap $8.00(net?)
per copy of Riven, I am calculating a Income per share
of .48
The wildcard is how much net dollars Riven will produce,
based on what I have read here on SI: I used the following
300,000 copies booked at gross profit of 8.00 per share
and an estimated to the retail outlet of 18.00
(someone stated 500,000 copies, but....)
In the 10k BROD said that COG included the cost of
the product (I would assume the cost to Cyan)
and the Sales & Mkt includes the Advertising costs.
(Though I tell ya, I have not seen that much advertising, lots
of floor space and vendor ads(ie compusa, best buy, etc)
The expenses were very hard to try to figure out.
What do you all think? This is just my stab,
hope I'm close and long on BROD at 31(since Jan/97)
This is based on the following:
brod Nov-97 (all numbers in thousands)
Sales 62,000 (not including riven)
COGS 22,177
gross margin 39,823
OS-Sales/Mkt 18,000 ( I bumped this for Riven costs)
research 8,000 (should be similar to past qtrs)
other 4,200 (similar to past qtrs)
total expense 30,200
inc from oper 9,623
interest/div 900 ( reduced due to less Assets)
equity in earn ??0?? (I don't know on this one.)
taxes 2,887 (roughly 33%)
calc net inc 7,636
Inc per Share .36 (based on about 21,000) shares
riven add in 2,400 gross revenue
0.12 per share income of Riven alone
0.48 total per share
rick tucker |
