["I doubt Elmer, or anyone running a junior, is going to discuss hypothetical situations involving future plans."]
Hmmm. Perhaps, as long as you don't consider things like "the report will be done on time" "the report will validate our concepts" and "negative copper costs" as being "hypothetical situations" ?
Reality is company management rarely want to discuss NEGATIVE hypothetical situations... even when they're clearly and rapidly becoming not all that hypothetical. Even when you see them coming a mile off, they'll tend to not appear to notice the negatives even exist... until AFTER they have been realized... as if, then, oops, who could have seen that coming ?
Every company wants to discuss POSITIVES... and how well things could work out, "if"... and, they'll persist in hanging on to the "if" even when its long since been made not possible.
I'd not yet say this company is completely a "can't get there from here" situation. Not yet. But, they've also not yet shown they've got any hints, much less any clue about "how to get there"... I'm not even sure they'd know where to go, even if they knew how...
Reality here today means the options now aren't what they once were. You can't keep doing the same old, and expect that will be sustainable... when things have changed that require that won't work. And, here, there is a LOT that has changed... almost none of it good, almost none of it providing clarity or certainty... about anything other than management... and their lack of perspicacity, at least...
The risks have grown, hugely, at least in perception... and the share price today clearly reflects the market's more accurate perception of those risks, today. Others here have addressed how they, personally, came to realize them... while some few others are still being somewhat less than realistic...
Realism requires noting that what differentiates actual "future potential" from actual "can't get there from here"... are sets of things that are either REAL, and MEASURABLE... or things that are more subjective and conditional.
"Management trumps geology"... is true. A management that will engage in self dealing and sell you down the river... will... no matter what the rocks have in them (although, not paradoxically if you think about it, they're far more likely to screw you the more real the value becomes, and the larger the value appears to be... the lack of clarity on the reasons for the differences in the NI reports here providing a potential case in point.) A management that can't manage its way out of a paper bag... is also a management that will still be in the bag, not managing its way out, when you're left there holding it. A track record, of consistent integrity, at least, and of proven successes in the past... matters. Taking a proper time for evaluation of the character of a management reduces the investors uncertainty in the subjective analysis, later.
The track record of management here... isn't one that anyone seems willing to tout, these days. But, you don't need a lot of time for analysis to note the coming impact of REAL, MEASURABLE factors that are going to be revealed as things are made more difficult, over time. As the share price is now hovering around a dime... compared to when the share price was a couple of dollars... things are more difficult. Shares dropping to selling around a dime... doesn't reduce the cost of doing work of exploration, in proportion ? So, you can't honestly forecast sustaining "more of the same"... when there is a factor in the difference between dimes and dollars, that imposes "can't get there from here" as a linear function of math in the burn rate.
Managements can alter plans, of course...
But, this management doesn't seem to know how... and hasn't shown any learning curve, yet...
There's not a reason you should routinely expect to see expensive brand new cars being driven off cliffs... but, if you note that expensive new car there is heading toward a cliff, note the driver clearly shows he doesn't know how to steer, and isn't using the steering wheel... and shows he doesn't know how to apply the brakes, and isn't using them... but is just holding the pedal to the floor... then... it shouldn't be a shock when you see it happen ?
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