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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp

APM 1.560

+15.6%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: Don Earl who wrote (11033)	12/17/1997 5:33:00 AM
From: Jonathan Bird	Read Replies (2) of 12298

An estimate of (.78) is ridiculous and of course it's timed just right to kill a technical rebound. Looks like it's time for some e-mail to the SEC. Don, I just pulled the First Call report and apparently these numbers have been out since Dec 9. So I guess this means that it is already factored into the price and shouldn't hurt the technical rebound you speak of. And since there was no PR release from the analyts on the day they downgraded is it safe to say they weren't simply hopeing to drive down the price by shock value? All, Some things about the report that I find wierd. One anal gives (.83) for FY98 and the other (.82). They both give .40 for FY99. Seems odd that they give the same numbers. What are odds? And yet for Q1 one gives (.84) and the other (.72). Not so close now. It looks as though APM has given guidence for FY98 and FY99 and simply left it to the analysts to fill in the numbers for the QTRs however they choose. Crispin has done this before and didn't make a public statement. So its posible that the (.78) is really just a guess and may be quite out of line with reality if all the analysts had was full year guidence to go on. So with this rationale, maybe Don is right. This Qtr can't be THAT(.78) bad. I can't justify it myself. The analysts should have spread the losses out more over the year. I have always thought that Q2 would be worse then Q1 anyway. Obviously im just speculating but does anyone see what im getting at? Jon Bird

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