Russia's GDP in 1999 was a lousy $196 billion, and by 2013 it reached almost 2.1 trillion. That's an impressive track record.
No sense beating the bush on this, but the "fair" spot to start is about 1994, a lot before the Russian Ruble collapse in the Asian fianancial crisis. Based on the chart from the page Steve linked, Russian GDP fell by half from about 1997 to 1999, so why begin your analysis at 1999?
And, the massive growth in the Russian economy which was unrelated to the Ruble crisis all occurs from 2001 to 2005. Not coincidentally that corresponds to the time when a barrel of oil goes from about $30 to about $140 (at the peak).
So...Putin delivered a return from a calamity situation for the Russian economy (well done, I suppose, who knows what he did to achieve this? I don't), and then the price of oil does the rest.
As for the impressive track record, we'll see, time will tell. If oil sits down here around $60 for a few years and the Russian GDP contracts by 30% (or whatever), the message will be that Russian GDP has little to do with Russian's track record and everything to do with external demand for commodities. I've read that the Russians have done a really poor job investing in their oil industry, and with the price lower it will be harder and harder to invest, so we'll get to see their track record in tough times over the next few years.
Or maybe oil will go back to $150 next year, we'll see. |
