INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap was $0.086B mid14 is $0.077B EOY14)
Drum roll please, and here it is the end of 2014 and MVIS is worth almost twice as much as it was at the end of 2013 ($0.41B). This is not news because small differences of small numbers can sound impressive. The company's current public pronouncements and the stock's current stock price are far below inferred expectations. MicroVision, as it has done for many years, is perceived as having over-delivered and under-performed. Perception may explain the stock price, or the stock price may reflect knowledge not made readily available.
MicroVision is a promising small company with a technology that could dramatically change our electronic world. The company is based on a one key technology: an oscillating mirror built into a chip (MEMS, MicroElectroMechanicalSystems), that can acquire and display images very cheaply, at high resolution, at high frequency, for low power, in a very small space. The technology won't change every display or camera, but even gaining a small market share of such enormous markets could make MVIS very valuable. That great potential has attracted one of the most patient, embattled, and informed collection of shareholders that I've met. (DNDN holds the highest spot, but then innovative cures for cancer approved by the FDA can do that.)
The potential is impressive. The company is small. The company has decided to only work with the most promising clients, which means even one success is probably sufficient to make MicroVision profitable. Large clients are also very careful with public information, so that may be the reason we shareholders know so little about what is happening with the company. Of course, one fear is that the apparent lack of information is due to the actual lack of information. From the outside there is no difference between grand plans held in secret versus grand failures held in secret versus ignorance of the customers' plan because of competitive secrecy.
In 2013 I expected to hear about 1-2 significant OEM deals that would make the company profitable. In 2014 I expected them plus quantitative announcements of 1-2 more. In place of them is the expectation of a multi-year deal with Sony, from information relayed during the annual stockholders meeting. As we step into 2015, I expect those earlier deals to become concrete like: the Sony announcement, plus at least one Sony product launch, plus a mid-year smartphone launch, plus a quantifiable commitment from UPS, plus an auto-HUD launch, plus at least one thing that will turn from private to public. I've never had such great expectations; but I've also never had the under-delivery so dramatically emphasized. My assessment of the company's credibility is the lowest ever and will only be regained by announcements that meet or exceed the initial expectations. That's not a place I want to be as an investor or as a speculator, and I am disappointed to see that the company has gotten into this situation. If they succeed, however, they will be seen as a phoenix or an example of perseverance. I expect to know the answer before the end of 2015, but then, I know my expectations for MicroVision and MVIS have never been met before. I look forward to a change.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone), and my patience is gone, yet my perseverance and majority of shares remain. I have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. I may buy and have bought more simply because the stock is so cheap.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com |
