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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 427.13-4.0%Feb 2 4:00 PM EST
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From: carranza21/4/2015 10:55:24 AM
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confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

Fortunately, 2014 is grinding to a halt if you are long in certain commodities. While some cheer falling commodity prices, they [sic] is little reason to cheer if the cause if declining demand (e.g., a global economic slowdown).

Major commodities lost ground in 2014, particularly energy and silver.



And for vegans, plunging commodity prices is excellent news! Soybeans and rice are both down over 20% for the year. But for us omnivores, cattle prices are UP over 20% for the year.



Iron ore, an important element for steel production, was down about 50% in 2014.



Switching from commodities to labor, we see that labor share of national income has been falling steadily as well, but for a longer time. Real median household income had been falling since 2007, but is showing a slow rise.



Average wage growth is stalled at 2.1% YoY to go along with declining labor share.



Meanwhile, consumer credit keeps rising going in the opposite direction of labor share. Thanks to The Federal Reserve zero interest rate policy.



House prices (the Case-Shiller repeat sales index for 20 metro areas) keeps rising despite other commodities falling.



Hopefully, 2015 will find global demand increasing for commodities along with wages. Otherwise, we will all have to wear Ironman suits for protection.

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