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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Brumar89 who wrote (830686)1/18/2015 3:22:33 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) of 1573434
 
"no more than four-hundredths of a degree"
Considering temps are supposed to go up 0.15 degrees/ decade, it's a lot, especially without El Nino..

. "But that's based on surface thermometer records, which are not reliable."

They are. His aren't.

Major UAH AdjustmentsAs shown in Figure 2, there have been a number of major adjustments to the UAH temperature record over the years. There is of course nothing wrong with adjusting a temperature record to remove biases - science progresses, after all. There is, however, a problem when the authors of that record continually insist that there are no problems with the record, and overstating the accuracy and robustness of their data, as Spencer and Christy have a history of doing ( as documented by Albatross). Further, in his follow-up post on Spencer's blog, Christy made a very incorrect statement about the causes behind the UAH corrections:

"The largest effect one sees [in the UAH corrections] is due to the spike in warming from the super El Nino of 1998 that tilted the trend to be much more positive after that date."

Figure 2 clearly shows this statement is false. The two adjustments in red (which correct for errors identified by scientists outside of UAH) alone account for 0.135 of the 0.138°C per decade UAH TLT trend - 98%! As Tom Curtis notes, the 1998 El Niño only accounts for approximately 0.008°C per decade (5.8%). Overall, the adjustments made to UAH (which resulted in both trend increases and decreases) account for half of the current UAH trend (0.069 of 0.138°C per decade).

skepticalscience.com
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