I didn't want to have to do this
1. Great overestimation of the potential market size. (more than 10X in my calculations; I could b completely wrong)
From exchange2000.com - Comments on Size Of Market- listed on the CCSI Research Page:
Existing market of bilirubin infant jaundice testing is $1.072 billion per year based on $330 million in the U.S., equivalent sized markets in each of Europe and China/Japan and about 1/4 that size in the rest of the Americas. This figure was determined by the number of tests performed.
Please note, that is not the potential market for Colormate. The demand for the disposables would have some relationship to this number as they are consumed on a per test basis. But potential demand for the equipment itself would actually be based on the number of physical locations where the tests are performed. That figure was not given.
from exchange2000.com - Comments on Size Of Market- listed on the CCSI Research Page:
On the investor side, it seems as though many people are getting carried away with the discussion of the market size. I am also surprised that anyone can really announce a TAM (Total Available Market) with 4 significant figures! There is a touch of naivity.
TAM is the largest possible market size covering all continents. A subset of TAM is called SAM (Servable Available Market), the portion of TAM that your company can conceivably and realistically serve. But in reality, a company should be very happy if they can meet 10-20% of the SAM.
In laymen's term, market size, however you want to define it, is only the size of the pie on the dinner table. There is no telling who gets invited to dinner, no telling what your portion should be. To think that a 24-person (and growing) organization can capitalize a $1 billion market, is to believe that Liechtenstein can become a notable world power. They probably come close, but not within a few years. There are plenty of stumbling blocks to overcome (staffing to address each of the market, production logistics, quality of product over extended use, potential litigation as people blaming on the instrument for misdiagnosing, etc.)
I support Darby, in her decision to grow slowly but surely. I would suggest that investors tuck away your shares and forget them for awhile. Let Darby go to work, instead of catering after you. This CCSI thing has the blockbuster potential, but it takes time.
From exchange2000.com - CONFERENCE CALL TRANSCRIPT 9/17/97 - listed on the CCSI Research Page:
Regarding pricing of CCSI's medical device, the Company is not able at this time to disclose the pricing structure and business models currently being discussed with the different potential distribution partners, including any increased market potential for non-invasive testing.
When business discussions are completed with potential partners and/or licensees, the business models and pricing structure for the Company's medical system will be made available, along with the key terms and features of the Company's and its partners' 3-4 year business plan to achieve global market penetration, including distribution performance requirements.
2. Insiders selling.
This topic has been discussed.....and discussed.....and discussed.....and discussed.....
3. Luck of any agreement 6 mos after FDA approval.
exchange2000.com - Comments - listed on the CCSI Research Page:
CCSI has received over the past several months, many proposals from a number of well known international companies. Recently CCSI received several more proposals which appear to be even MORE attractive to CCSI and its shareholders...................
........From what I understand, there are no "snags" or other difficulties; quite to the contrary, the company is in the enviable position of being presented with a significant number of attractive proposals from well known companies who want CCSI's technology and/or its applications.
The CEO is interested in maximizing CCSI's value, and will take whatever time she feels she needs to complete that review. She is quite aware of the "interest" of CCSI shareholders in getting immediate "news", however, she believes that they will appreciate the effort she is making in maximizing their shareholder interest by not taking the first offer.
4. Luck of any market penetration for previous 9 years in any field.
See exchange2000.com - Timeline of how long it took for CCSI to conduct clinicals and submit to FDA - listed on the CCSI Research Page
5. Possibly incorrect direction: laptop type instead of hand-held simple devices.
Hand-held device will be marketed to other than medical industries.
6. Competition.
See exchange2000.com - CCSI Research Page
(Look under "COMPETITION") |
