thanks....without getting too deep in this forum, briefly, one of the many keys to excelling at the "trading stuff", is to realize, as I learned many years ago, is that, pretty much "nothing ever changes", that is, that "things are as they always have been/occured", that is, that tops/bottoms almost always form, with the same general set of characteristics....as I was discovering the historical facts, that helped me create my "PSYCLE sm" timing concepts, in 1970, and since, I went back many decades, to discern the long-existing, repeating patterns, of both, charts, and human/media behaviors, which have both, worked better than any other attempts to try to employ "external" (i.e., financial, fundamental, and/or news-oriented) elements, to try to predict probable future stock price movements (hows that for a sentence ?)
anyway, seriously, I have "been there" for every "happening," to every industry group, worldwide, since 1970 or so, and, for instance, every time the semis/comp/techs stocks have bottomed/topped S.T., the SAME comments are said about them....and, often, they exhibit the same general chart patterns, i.e., oversold, exhaustion "PSYCLE sm" lows, on volume, tax-selling, etc....worth buying, with close stops, at thiose times, INDEPENDENTLY/REGARDLESS of anyone's real or hoped-for fundamentals occuring at the time, dig ? a major revelation for me....
the Mexican issues rose off such bottoms, as have Steels, Oils, Golds, Biotechs, etc., the last several years, especially from Dec. lows....
always accompanied by the masses' giving tons of supposed "fundamental reasons" for them not to, right ? hey, often, those very people loved them at their tops, right ?
my followers have come to truly believe, that, if technicals/sentiment works so well, so often, just by themselves, allowing for occasional cut losses, why expend any more time/effort with "fundamentals/news" which have historically been of little or no "directly applicable future price predictive value" much....in other words, if one can be right, say, 2/3 of the time (my historical, L.T., actual track record so far, but not guaranteed each time, of course), using very FEW inputs, consistently---then, letting tons of other factors/items into our brains, trying to be even better (which is pretty unlikely,
right ?) would be a bit of a waste of our valuable time....
it's really kinda simple....most all the things "few" people look at or do, are the most important things to master...and most of the things which 95 % of people try to employ, are not as valuable.... makes sense....anyway, your mentioned SMTC, for instance, had risen from 1.00 to 70.00 in less than 3 years, parabolic, i.e., "cruisin' for a bruisin" technically, and sentiment-wise....I remember this one at 1.00, when it traded on the amex, and everybody hated it....then, as usual, everybody loved it over 50.00....so, it's first logical decline, as I teach, stopped at it's 200 DMA around 40.00, and it is still "not cheap", having been much lower not too long ago...perhaps many people fail to view charts far back enough to glean proper perspective sometimes....looking at it's chart, I see absolutely NO "held support" on SMTS at any time, off it's high...maybe at 40.00, but even then not VG.....bottom line: there were/are much better-situated, depressed techs recently, than this one....breaking 40.,
it "could" still fall, to it's 30.-26. area, L.T. support....(not a formal prediction)...whereas, issues like UTR, and many others, are more depressed, trying to carve out "exhaustion V bottoms" here....
last, off EVB"s, lower-priced issues are also likely to have higher
% bounces, when/if they occur, than higher-priced issues, period.
which si another reason why we only buy truly depresseds, with stops.
hope this helps, for now...always trying to share factual, historical info. we never buy "up"....best wishes, isn't this fun ? |
