For the long-term bulls: time to wait.
We need to test the recent lows, on heavy volume, at least one more time. We need to establish a base lasting two months, at least, without setting new lows. We need to see how many fab pushouts, currency collapses, etc. are going to happen. We need to stop the free-fall in memory chip prices. We need to go at least a month without a analyst downgrade. Earnings, for the next two quarters, are meaningless, and I will ignore them. They will be very good, but they won't keep the stock up, or even level. It's the future that matters.
The stock is going down for fundamental, and rational, reasons. But the depth of the downturn is determined by emotional, and therefore unpredictable, factors. We could see x1 sales. Or we could be forming the base now, and have a choppy but essentially horizontal stock movement for the next few months. I don't know. But I don't think I'm putting any new money into AMAT for a while. |
