<<< But what abouit all this set-top box
cable market that TCI is heading. Will cable be
more attractive to home users. Why or why not?>>>
Jim --
I have to smile b/c this is a debate that's been on-going for nearly two years. I just wish SI had a search engine so we could dig up some of the old posts.
In short, yes, cable will be competition, but the speed on cable is shared and therefore inconsistent, to say nothing of insecure. It's also one-way in the older systems (costly upgrades necessary or you must use a telephone line for upstream), and cable companies aren't as reliable as telcos in terms of service. Once telcos get ADSL deployed --- most quote 1.5Mbps for initial rollouts --- they'll not only offer constant speeds, they'll put their reputations behind their products for installation and service. Don't forget, with ADSL you can use your fax, phone, Internet, and video, all on the same line at the same time.
Try to imagine MCI, GTE, USWest, or any other, launching a no-holds-barred advertising campaign for fast Internet service. Imagine having one phone number to dial and that's it. The telco does all the rest. They come out and install, configure the PC, average the cost over 6 months or so, and that's it. No additional lines needed. In fact, you can probably get rid of one b/c your fax can be added to the same as your ADSL.
If you talk to TI's ADSL director, he'll tell you he's delighted the cable companies are beating the drums. The competition puts telcos' feet to the fire and without it, they'll stall to protect their T1 revenues.
This is off the top of my head. The main question is when will the telcos deploy? My take? When the chips are out.
Later ---
Pat
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