Big Dog's Boom Boom Room Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room

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To: t4texas who wrote (188384)	1/27/2015 1:51:11 PM
From: MIRU	5 Recommendations of 206324

Lots of good insights on the oil situation on this board recently. It's compacted. But here is (I think) a simple model: The world demand for oil is still increasing. The long term trend is an increase of about 1 MMBPD per year. So if production growth flattens, a shortage and higher prices will return. The only short term source of additional production is shale. So we are the swing producer now. (Do we need a North Dakota Railroad commission?) The real risk is geopolitical - If Libya or Iraq or Iran stabilize or avoids sanctions each might be able to add maybe 2 MMBPD. (My guess. Others on this board should be able to do better.) If all three straighten out, extend the bear market six years. The wild card is Saudi stability. In other words, politics is the real swing factor. The future is unpredictable.

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