1/30/15 Contest update
In the spirit of the “Deflate-Gate” statistical kerfuffle, I did my own number-crunching, especially of the Roman variety, and my sophisticated statistical analysis of the Charity Contest numbers has produced: “The Biotech Charity Contest Super Bowl Theory”!
I imagine most of you have heard of the “Super Bowl Theory,” which posits that an NFC team win (or original NFL team win) means a bullish year for stocks, while an AFC win predicts a lousy market year. But, regrettably, the “Super Bowl Theory” fails to predict the winner of the Super Bowl. That’s where “The Biotech Charity Contest Super Bowl Theory” comes in.
Here’s how it goes: If the leader of the Charity Contest the Friday prior to Super Bowl Sunday lives East of the geographic center of the United States, the team home-based furthest East will win the Super Bowl and vice versa if the Contest leader lives West of the geographic center of the United States. I back-tested the Theory in 2014 and it works! Yours truly was No. 1 in the Contest prior to the XLVIII Super Bowl and sure enough the Seattle Seahawks slaughtered the Denver Broncos.
Since the Contest leader this pre-Super Bowl Friday is East-coaster GENE, the New England Patriots are certain to deflate the hopes of Seattle Seahawk fans for two Super Bowl wins in a row. And, despite their confusing genealogy, the Patriots are now without a doubt an NFL team. So, a fortiori, Sunday’s Super Bowl XLIX Patriot victory means 2015 will be a super year for stocks. Suck it up, Nate Silver!
Meanwhile, at Friday’s close, the Contest median was up an astonishing 10.74% YTD (vs. up 6.37% YTD a week ago). The Contest median made its jump despite a drop for the Nasdaq Biotech Index, up 5.90% YTD (vs. up 6.24% YTD a week ago) and an even larger weekly loss for the Nasdaq Composite Index, down -2.13% YTD (vs. up .46% YTD a week ago).
Contest leader, GENE’s portfolio, had a fine week and is now up 46.17% YTD. OLIVIER’s portfolio, up 36.04% YTD, moved into second place and OHM’s portfolio, up 31.77% YTD, slipped to third place.
At Friday's close, 45 of the 51 Contest portfolios were in the black with 30 of the 51 beating the NBI. And the 206 Contest stock picks have an average YTD gain of 7.26%
Below is the Top Ten list. Also below are the Top 5 & Bottom 5 Stocks ranked by % Gained and % Lost YTD. (Prices not converted to US$ in these Tables.)
Portfolio adjustments: None
(All corrections, especially adjustments for splits, greatly appreciated.)
Have a super Super Bowl weekend biotechies!
Peace & good health,
Bulba
1/30/15
Rank Name Profit/Loss
1 GENE 46,173
2 OLIVIER 36,036
3 OHMS 31,770
4 IMAN 27,026
5 MCBIO 25,079
6 GADGET 23,382
7 DNASPL 23,066
8 STEVEL 22,037
9 TRONKA 21,073
10 BULBA 19,939
Week's Top 5 Gainers
Symbol 1/23/15 1/30/15 Wk.%chg.
CAPR 4.050 6.500 60.49%
HTBX 4.090 5.666 38.54%
CDXS 2.900 3.820 31.72%
KIPS 0.190 0.250 31.58%
GNCA 6.550 8.580 30.99%
Week's Worst 5 Losers
Symbol 1/23/15 1/30/15 Wk.%chg.
NRI.TO 8.070 4.510 -44.11%
TLOG 5.830 4.960 -14.92%
XNCR 17.410 15.150 -12.98%
MRNA 0.685 0.599 -12.55%
VRTX 125.570 110.140 -12.29% |
