As I've posted previously, I have owned CVX for years... I have been doing a lot of TA on the major E&Ps and wrt CVX, it looks to me like the share price has not matched the decline in the price of oil... yet... this suggests that holders/investors are betting on an oil rebound this year to the 80s, while the other possibility is for stocks like CVX to revisit price levels from the period after the 2008 financial collapse, in CVX's case, it could easily revisit the $80s if that is the case.
I am seeing what could be the beginning of a bottom forming in the sector, but I am not convinced and we could see oil bounce along the bottom ($40s/$50s, or even lower) for months, IMO, before an actual LT bottom is in... this agrees with my FA of the sector in general... which leads me to exercise caution before jumping on what will be a generational opportunity to ride a powerful return to a secular bull in oil/energy -- not if, but when.
In the meantime, those DGI-ers with strong stomaches and their XOM, CVX, OXY, etc. on reinvest, will be handsomely rewarded down the road. Those wanting to start or add significantly, should follow Steve's lead and make many small nibbles until/unless we see confirmation of a tradeable LT bottom has been put in.
As always, the above is simply my opinion based on my 3+ decades in the offshore oil industry and I urge everyone to do their own DD -- use or flush mine as appropriate... I'm simply sharing what my TA and FA suggest to me -- others are way better at this stuff than I am. |
