Larry says:
" Wellllll Ken Pomanranski, aren't *we* special!!
You return from being away and your first comment is to welcome new posters with
the wisdom of: New poster = dumb investor (g)"
*********************
Welcome Larry! and sorry.. I get a little carried away sometimes.
congrats on your gains over the last week. You did better than I did.
Just remember that it's not real until it's in cold, hard cash... ;)
Also, congrats to the biggest bull of all, Mr. Skinner. I love your
posts!
Anyway... Looks like we got some more clues... let me summarize..
(hate to spoil the party, BUT, just a few more things to think
about)...
(1) Zip rebates (first clue to slowing demand, although most
would argue with me here)
(2) Q2: lower revenues than expected by most (where was that Jaz contribution?)
(3) 'challenging' Q3
(4) H&Q, Emerald, JP Morgan, cutting estimates in half (and worse,
lowering revenue projections)
(5) IMP mentioning slowing demand from 'certain big customer', etc.
(6) Big 3 computer makers not biting on OEM deals. (HP still only
partially commited..)
Now about this $60-80 per zip installed going to Iomega.. questions..
(1) what is the factory cost of the drive (I hope it's below $60-80)
(2) Why would an OEM leave money on the table by installing a ZIP
instead of a floppy?
- floppy costs $15, Zip cost ~$70.. manufactures are leaving
$55/system on the table. Say they sell 1 million systems..
thats 55 million bucks to the bottom line! NO WAY would any
computer company that wants to compete in this cutthroat
buisness leave that much money on the table. They would
MUCH rather leave the Zip as an aftermarket item. That's why
the drive isn't a standard item on any mainstream computer
makers system yet..
Anyway, any one of the above items could (and have been) explained
away by the bulls. But all the above taken in tandem??
food for thought...
kp
P.S. I still wouldn't go long or short in this stock. The trading
is just too weird.. Been watching PUT/CALL ratio daily, just
waiting for a sign. |
