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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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To: arno who wrote (15)2/7/2015 7:55:58 PM
From: weatherguru1 Recommendation

Recommended By
TideGlider

   of 270
 
Hi arno -- It's really concerning (the lack of rain). I've heard about Denver breaking all-time record highs. That's amazing after breaking record lows 6 weeks ago with the strong highs around New Years.

This current pattern is so persistent. This is persistence that no model can replicate, which show these models don't have the dynamics of these patterns figured out. A fancy way of saying, who knows? IMO, it highlights the importance of studying these low-frequency patterns.

2 ways to get rain for middle of the country. Like before the Super Bowl, a plume came out of Baja Cali and hit a front from Canada to drop some snow/rain. The second is for the ridge over Cali to break down and the pineapple express of disturbances to cross the country in a zonal fashion (instead of going to Canada). This will likely happen with a strong solar flare (sun is really quiet right now...flare ~Feb 20) or just ending of the winter pattern (middle of March).

I see a change in the pattern ~Feb 20, which may bring some precipitation to middle of the country. That's kind of all I see right now, for the sun may become dormant again. I am hoping for a wet spring for middle of the country. I have family in Oklahoma, and the lakes are drying up.

All the best!
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