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From: Brumar89	2/10/2015 6:53:30 PM
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.... Long Record GHCN Stations – an Analysis of the Data At Jeff’s request, I present here some findings from work I have carried out using long-record GHCN stations. I have defined these as stations with temperature data in both 1900 and 1999 and fewer than 240 months (20%) in that period with no data. The reason for looking at long record stations is primarily that one can have some confidence that trends over the last 100 years or so reflect actual changes in recorded temperature and are not affected by changes over time in the set of stations that are combined to produce an average. ............ One can gain some idea of the effects of the homogeneity adjustments by comparing the mean trend for all stations with adjusted data with the mean trend for all stations with raw data. The graph below shows that the 1900-2005 trend in the mean anomaly temperature from the 764 stations using adjusted data was 0.0536, again not statistically significant. The mean of the trends of the individual series is almost identical at 0.0523. These trends are double those for the 1034 stations with long raw data records, which seems a little surprising. ............. In order to get a clearer picture of the effects of the adjustment process, I calculated the trend in the combined raw data from all 764 stations which had long records of adjusted data, thereby ensuring a like-for-like comparison. The mean raw temperature anomaly record of those 764 stations is shown below. ............ What this shows is that on average the adjustment process more than quadrupled the trend in raw temperatures, increasing the trend of the mean from 0.0113 for raw data to 0.0536. Indeed, if the mean trend change of 0.0423 resulting from adjustments to the long record stations were typical of the effect of adjustments to station data generally, the adjustment process would account for a substantial proportion of the recorded global mean temperature increase over the twentieth century. ............ In conclusion, the raw data from long record GHCN stations shows little apparent warming in the USA and moderate warming (on land) elsewhere, only part of which seems likely to be due to the UHI effect. The adjusted data shows much higher trends than the raw data for the same stations, and it is not clear why the homogeneity adjustments should on balance be significantly positive. ............ https://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2010/01/19/long-record-ghcn-analysis/

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