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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait?
TXN 159.33-1.8%Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: Charlie Smith who wrote (2558)12/17/1997 10:32:00 PM
From: Larry Brew  Read Replies (2) of 6180
 
Charlie, Robert, << TI earnings >>

I did some quick research since we're on a roll. Periodically
I log earning estimates, P/E's, P/s's, growth and numereous other
indicators on about 25 stocks, TI included. I try to update monthly
or so.
Looking at my Oct.4th evaluation, TI 1998 expected earnings was
$5.76/share. Today it's at $2.76/share for 1998. With the stock now
at about $44/share and split the 5.76 becomes $2.88/share. Only a
.12 decrease, but today's tech sector expects better than forcasted
earnings due to past performance. Current 1997 earnings are projected
to be 2.08 with 4th qtr at .60. At 1997 earnings and a healthy PE
of 20, that makes TI a 41.6 dollar stock. Almost all tech sectors,
including semis, have given disappointing earnings. This alone will
drive multiples to a more normal valuation of 17 times earnings.
This puts TI at 35.36 for 1997 earnings and 48.96 for 1998. Remember,
sentiment rules and today it's negitive for technology.
Personally I believe the slowdown is due to transition in the
industry. Some upside should occur in Jan/Feb due solely to added
401k money to the market. Fear not if your a long term investor.
No charge for this service!
Larry
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