NEXTEL Message Board - Msg: 2994448

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Technology Stocks : NEXTEL

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To: P.T.Burnem who wrote (3759)	12/17/1997 11:31:00 PM
From: Bubba	Read Replies (3) of 10227

PT - I agree system capacity is a real issue. NXTL has said engineered capacity for system is 15mm. Their near term business plan is 7mm. At $60 ARPU, 7mm users, 45% margins & 10x multiple with 360mm shares = $63. Take 12x multiple and get $75. $70 ARPU w/ 12x multiple gets you to $88. Target year is 2002. Not including Int1l. It seems logical that MOU1s & ARPU can stay high w/ 2nd line & data service coming. The only issue is whether the company is right at their estimate of capacity and the business plan for 7mm is realistic by 2002. Given the Street coverage, I doubt the company could BS the Street this long. In any event, we1ll see. BTW, if you read my prior posts as I suggested, these numbers should be old news. Bubba

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