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Biotech / Medical : Chromatics Color Sciences International. Inc; CCSI
CCSI 23.53+1.8%10:21 AM EST

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To: JanyBlueEyes who wrote (618)12/18/1997 12:10:00 AM
From: poodle  Read Replies (1) of 5736
 
Jane, thank you for your post. It looks like we do not understand each other. I will do my best to be well understandable.

Market size (US)
CCSI: 330 M $ Tests: 15M
SpectrX : 100 M$ about 20$ each Tests: 5M
This company is in the same bussiness. Management has NO ANY REASON to UNDERESTIMATE market size.
(Can you explain the difference between two management's estimations?)

Because CCSI will get money not from patients (or ins), but from service providers, we need per test cost to calculate potential market size.

2.2$

It is from SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL. People who wrote it were VERY POSITIVE about noninvasive technology. Please, look at the title: "Transcutaneous Bilirubinometry Decreases the Need for Serum Bilirubin Measurements and Saves Money." One of the main conclusions is: "saves money". Why should they UNDERESTIMATE the PRICE OF OLD METHODS?

The results of calculations were:
CCSI: 33M$
SpectrX: 11M$

I explained the reason why I would trust SpectrX more.

That's my estimation of the size of "bilirubin" market today. For ALL competitors. Please, tell me where you agree or disagree and what your calculations are.
You may also have estimation of potential earnings from other products, as well as possible stock price and P/E calculations.

Negotiations: It seems to be logical for the company to have an agreement well before FDA approval (IMHO) to be able to start to supply product immediately. Looks like CCSI have already lost about a year. That's not only earning that they did not get, but also competitors coming. Such negotiations seems to be very expensive. Even not an ideal deal could be more profitable.

Well, it is more than 12 o'clock again. I have to check a lot of other posts. Have a good night.
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