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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (54909)2/18/2015 8:15:07 PM
From: E_K_S  Read Replies (1) of 78666
 
Re: Sterling Construction Co. Inc. (STRL)

Here is a pretty good SA article that reviews the STRL issues (CEO & bank covenant challenges). The author makes a compelling argument that STRL's fair value is $13.96/share. I am not sure I would hold out for that price but at $3.06/share, the risk/reward opportunity appears to be quite good.

Sterling Construction's Temporary Problems Mask A Huge Upside

. . . Based on the above, and on other historical information, an industry net income margin averages around 2.5% of revenues. The company in its January 27, 2015 announcement stated it expects revenues of $669 to $674 million in 2014. Total backlog of $764 million at December 31, 2014, was up from $687 million at 2013 year-end. Based on the backlog and 2014 preliminary numbers, a current run rate for revenues is about $700 million. At 2.5%, an industry average profit would be $17.5 million. There are 18.8 million shares outstanding indicating a profit of $0.93 EPS with industry average margins. It should be noted that in 2010 the company's net profit margin was 4.1% and in 2009, it was 6.1%, so a higher profit is definitely possible. At a P/E ratio of 15, the stock price would be $13.96. That is 467% higher than the $2.99 the stock closed at on February 13, 2015. The stock price is currently 72% of tangible book value (after the expected fourth quarter loss). The stock price is currently only 0.08 times sales, a very low level.
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Will double my current position if this sell below $3.00/share.

EKS
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