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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Dale J. who wrote (26850)12/18/1997 1:15:00 AM
From: Petz  Read Replies (2) of 1578142
 
Dale, re:<I don't think AMD can win this fight against Intel. But they can hurt intel's earnings for as long as they last>

There seems to be a feeling among Intel investors that AMD is going bankrupt because they had a few quarters with minor losses, but the '98 profit estimates for AMD is $1.27 vs an expected loss for '97 of just 0.14. Furthermore if AMD spent 10% of sales on R&D instead of 21%, they would have had a profit in every quarter this year as well. The truth is, AMD made big sacrifices of profits in '97 but '98 is the first payoff year.

Will AMD catch up to Intel in '98. Probably not quite in desktop CPU's, probably yes in Notebook CPU's. Currently AMD is 2 speed grades behind Intel AND overcoming yield problems. In '98, being just 1 speed grade behind Intel will boost profits immensely. Why? The two highest speed Intel processors are always MUCH more expensive than the rest. The top speed processor (now a 300MHz Pentium II) is always a slow seller and doesn't account for much of Intel's profits. The second to fastest CPU is the one that Intel makes the big bucks on. If the second fastest CPU belongs to AMD, AMD will be making some of those big bucks.

Is AMD still having Yield problems?

If AMD was having yield problems, would Intel be accelerating their price cuts? Don't think so. Yet thats what recent reports are saying (see techweb.cmp.com and almost all Intel CPU's are widely available at prices below their published wholesale price.

Petz
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