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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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To: TideGlider who wrote (32)2/24/2015 3:36:41 PM
From: weatherguru1 Recommendation

Recommended By
TideGlider

   of 270
 
Headline from NOAA's Winter Outlook 2014-2015.

"Repeat of last year’s extremely cold, snowy winter east of Rockies unlikely"
Doh!

Headline from NOAA's Winter Outlook 2013-2014, the winter that brought us the "polar vortex"
"No strong climate pattern influence anticipated through upcoming winter season"
Doh!

Take a look at temperature probability for New England this winter as predicted by NOAA.

Doh!

Now precipitation for this winter as predicted by NOAA.


They just had the pattern wrong. And this was 3 months of prediction. No worries, when NOAA computes the surface temperature of Earth to 2 significant digits before the satellite era (1970 back to 1880), they use the same models and statistics to fill in 97% of the Earth with missing data.

It's also why I laugh when a paper talks about "models predict by 2080"...what a load of shit! LOL!
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