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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement
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To: Kip S who wrote (22010)2/28/2015 10:58:01 PM
From: Steve Felix1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Steve K

   of 34328
 
I don't think you would be insane. Depends on what you think of CVX longer term imho.
I understand everyone wants the best price they can get, including me.

I try to keep companies from bankruptcy by not recommending any, but your post got me to thinking.

Five years into a rising market can skew numbers. Maybe JNJ is fairly priced here, and the
2.7% yield continues forward, and doesn't revert closer to the five year average of 3.2%.
Most numbers I have seen call for 7% dividend growth going forward.

Pretty sure we all know how reliable forward looking guesstimates are, especially longer term (10 years?).

The same numbers for CVX are 4% current yield, 5 yr. avg. 3.2%. Numbers I've seen calling for 8% div. growth.

I'm really liking the Miller Howard calculator. If the talking heads are right on all points for JNJ, and wrong by
half on CVX, so that they only raise 4% on average, with reinvestment it would take 27 years for the yield on
investment of JNJ to catch CVX.

Without reinvestment JNJ leads at 15 years.

Simply bumping up the JNJ yield .3 to an even 3% changes the crossovers to 17 and 12 years.

sugar.mhinvest.com

Then again, the talking heads could be right.
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