Zakrosian: including APM was more a generic inclusion of a basically
good company that is down right now than a pure fundamental assessment of the liklihood of a good profit from it in the mid term. I thought about taking that out of that post but decided to leave it simply because it made the point. I also thought about saying "not look for 12+ months," but that is hard to even think about, much less write...
Aside from fundamental recovery, there are other possibilities for APM and others in the DD sector. It would not surprise me to see some consolidation in the sector which would provide either a buyout opportunity, a plus based on "synergies," or even just appreciation based on speculation of consolidation. I am not suggesting that anyone is going to buy APM. I also recognize that there is also some downside risk left, especially in percentage terms....
I fully agree that there are many other stocks that look much better right now over the next 6-12 months. But that, in part, was my point. The way things look right now is not necessarily the way they will look in 3, 6, 9, or 12 months and as bad as many things look right now may be exactly the reason to buy and hold or as AT sugegsted, dollar cost average. I started doing this with some baby bells a while back when the "accepted" view was that they were not likely to be good performers for a while: it turns out to have been a good move, although it didn't look all that great at the time.
Truth is that I am uncomfortable with my instincts at this moment. That may change tomorrow or next month, but in the meantime it makes me want to consider other strategies -- the constant search for a solution when presented with a problem. Too, some of it is just thinking out load.....some of the best ideas come from just kicking things around even if the initial thoughts are hogwash...Indeed, that is precisely the value I have found in this thread.
Troy |
