Tom,
I agree with your last several posts, along with Kerry's, although I haven't had time to respond. (Out of the office more often than not, these days. I thought that was supposed to make the price go up!)
Current stock price notwithstanding, it is difficult for me to believe that Ancor will fail if the Fibre Channel growth estimates from the researchers are accurate. There will simply be too much business for one player (Brocade) to handle.
With regard to potential OEM deals, I keep thinking of the one that got away. If memory serves, Sequent was supposed to be worth UP TO $30 million dollars over two years. Based on Brocade's rapid revenue ramp, I have a hunch that those figures aren't too far off. One Sequent sized deal would probably be worth more than Ancor's total revenue for 1997! By most accounts there are 15-20 OEMs out there, and maybe more. Some of them are likely to be even bigger than Sequent. Based strictly on revenues, a number of potential OEMs are larger than Sequent, some of them MUCH larger.
While trying out my optometrist recommended computer glasses <g>, I did a search on the web for Fibre Channel companies. Wading through the 10,000+ hits, I found MANY companies that are involved in Fibre Channel that I wasn't aware of. Several of them I had never even heard of. (I passed those names on to Ancor, by the way.) This bodes well for the overall Fibre Channel market, as more and more companies become aware of, and start to implement, the technology. One thing I noticed is that Fibre Channel is moving down the food chain more quickly than I had thought. Would you believe devices costing under $1,000 with a FC/AL port? These things are going to be everywhere if they can pull that off.
Craig |
