Piotroski,
Thanks Paul. Yes, I own a few of those, but am mostly passing on the energy ones.
I currently own
ARTX
WILC
and a very small tracking position on PHII, since it has a lot of energy-related revenue.
I do try to avoid judgment calls, but given the cyclical nature of the energy plays, I don't think that last year's financials are relevant to now, and I'm not inclined to make a big macro bet on oil right now (there is a huge glut of oil in storage, and am not confident on making commodity bets). I prefer to make money on micro inefficiencies. I will make macro related bets if sentiment is so negative that I feel like I am alone making the bet, but I don't see that right now.
Also I have found that these screens haven't worked that well for cyclical companies whose fundamentals are changing rapidly. I mean the fact that ROE or whatever improved for an oil company last year doesn't that seem relevant when we know it is going to be a lot worse this year. Instead of the Piotroski screen, I think you probably should look for companies well positioned to manage lower oil prices. But who knows, maybe I am overthinking things :)
MC |
