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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate

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lightshipsailor

TideGlider

To: The Barracuda™ who wrote (40)	3/6/2015 9:46:52 AM
From: weatherguru	2 Recommendations of 270

I expect the rain to come this spring the South-west U.S. and ramp-up once again in the August through October. Teleconnections are strongest in the winter and weaken greatly heading into summer. This holds true with the AMO teleconnection, so as that weakens, this is why I say the SW US will get its much needed rain. AMO is Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It has plummeted into negative territory, and it's impact on the US in winter is strong...which explains the "polar vortex" pattern these past 2 winters. A picture of the jet stream with negative AMO is below (the AO/NAO is the atmospheric component of the AMO, much like the Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Nino). intellicast.com The lower-right picture shows the pattern of this past winter. All the lows hitting NE US and tracking across southern Europe ( getting hammered now) and into Middle East. Back to El Nino; I'm confused. SST's are below average near Peru. I don't really see the point of proclaiming an El Nino now (unless it's just to get media riled up). We've been in the same Pacific pattern since May 2015, which is a Modoki El Nino. This should strengthen into July and last through early 2016. After that, it'll transition to La Nina in 2017 followed by a El Nino in late 2020 and subsequent strong La Nina in 2022. There's always a strong El Nino after solar minimum (1998, 2010, 2020) and weaker El Nino associated with changes in lunar declination. Why billions are wasted on climate models that have yet to even forecast or replicate an El Nino is beyond me. If you want to do any reading on 3 major low-frequency patterns in Northern Hemisphere, here you go! bobtisdale.wordpress.com The oceans rule the roost and control the thermostat. CO2 does next to nothing.

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