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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 260.22

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Joseph J. Clark who wrote (13571)	12/18/1997 11:00:00 AM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Joseph and all, the November btb numbers are out. I quote a few lines from Infrastructure's newsletter (I'm on a 2 week trial) and hope Carl Johnson won't mind, especially since I recommend his service. infras.com [snip] November orders (three month average) for semiconductor equipment grew another 5 percent to approach the $1.9 billion mark. The SEA's financial woes and the collapse in DRAM prices has yet to slow equipment shipments[snip] Segment October Book-to-Bill November Book-to-Bill Revised Preliminary -------- ------------------ ---------------- Front End 0.98 0.93 Test/Assembly 1.16 1.21 Total 1.02 0.99 We don't think anybody should get excited about the ratios dropping below the much exalted 1.0 level. Shipments are GROWING faster than bookings right now and this is the reason the ratio has gone below parity. [end of quote] Please reflect on the nature of the btb number. Suppose I bill (and ship) 100 and book new orders for 110. The btb is 110/100=1.1 In the next period I bill for the orders of the past period, 110, and take new orders for 115. Now btb is 1.045 (115/110) - a drop in btb, even though orders have increased from 110 to 115. The Street watches this number, but may not reflect on it this way. GM

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