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Biotech / Medical : ARTERIAL VASCULAR ENGINEERING

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To: Dan Woodbury who wrote (318)12/18/1997 2:09:00 PM
From: Jeff Gurian   of 339
 
I dont think the dollar is much of a worry for AVE. So far, and I've been following this company since the IPO, they have never blamed earnings on the strong dollar and they did miss earnings a few times during the big skid early this year. Since all of AVE's current profits are derived from overseas, I think the current valuations are reflective more of the U.S. market potential and the sales they are going to do here. From what I understand AVE is ready and waiting for their FDA approval.

As far as short term risk goes, I would be more concerned that AVE does not meet its domestic sales expectations. Since demand overseas remains strong it appears that all of AVE's growth and appreciaiton potential now rest in the U.S. alone. How much they will do in sales here is anyones guess though. If they do not meet expectations early then I think the stock is going to get hammered and might not recover (after all, if they could not meet earnings in the first quarter after having more than a year to prepare then this probably is not a good company.) Personally, I dont think they are going to have a problem.

PS- that fall early this year began in the upper 40's about two months after the IPO. I never thought the company was worth anywhere under 30. That fall turned into a very profitable buying opportunity. In that whole time I never heard the strong dollar being mentioned as a reason for the decline (actually, I never found out why it fell at all. Oh well).
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