The real REAL Reason Apple's iPad exists
OK, John Martellaro is the real deal. As a developer, a writer, and a techie. He and I have been corresponding for more than a decade, albeit in a fashion that he might not recognize ... he has a column and occasionally ventures onto boards like this one, whereas I persist on boards and occasionally venture comments onto other people's websites, somewhat anonymously. John once ventured onto our RB board, I think about 15 years ago, and made a credible effort while writing about AAPL, but it was not particularly well-received there 'cause his effort did not seem wholly appreciative of the situation then. I appreciated it mostly because he made a sincere effort. I might've referred to this in the past, though looking it up would require more effort than I'm willing to put forth just now. Plus RB has wiped its boards at least twice since then -- one big reason I don't bother posting there any longer.
John has been writing of Apple's need for a 12" iPad for many months now, and I am sympathetic. His latest effort on the subject, while it recognizes some of what defines the need many of us filled when buying our first iPad, fails to recognize what the iPad actually is. I don't mean to single our Mr. Martellaro on this because it seems like most of the tech press thinks similarly, seeming to believe that the iPad (or the tablet market in general) is a separate thing.
It is not.
The iPad is Apple's definitive answer to the cheap laptop market that was emerging 5 years ago. What did they call it then? Trying to remember ... ah yes, the netbook.
The iPad was, and remains, the netbook killer. The tablet market is not a separate thing, it's just a thing in between smartphones and real laptops. The Chromebook is that in-between "segment's" latest entry. The iPad is Apple's cheap laptop, and when it came out it killed most everyone else's. Unlike smart phones, iPads don't need to be replaced every other year. Heck, my MacBook is going on 7 years old ... it was Apple's cheapest laptop at about $1K when I bought it and still gets frequent use, because I don't ask much of it. It surfs, it e-mails when I'm not in front of my desktop, and it's PORTABLE.
I bought an iPad shortly after it was introduced. Though since I knew a second generation would follow shortly thereafter, I admit that I waited a few months until that second generation appeared before buying.
My wife continues to use her second-generation iPad to take notes, surf, and e-mail. Our kids also swipe it to play games and watch videos ("Modern Family", mostly). When they can find it, because of course we understand that they will steal away with it, so we hide it a bit so it remains available for its originally intended purpose(s).
As remains the case with my 2008 MacBook, there has been no need to replace our iPad, though we might replace both within the next couple years or so, for the same reason I've already purchased two Mac minis this year -- the old one had fallen sufficiently behind the technology curve, originally purchased to be a development machine for me that the kids could also use from the back of the kitchen, and when it reached 10 years old it would no longer run modern software. Now I have two separate machines, one that the kids use in the kitchen, and a separate development machine for me. Which I'm writing from right now.
10+ years. Is that the replacement cycle for the tablet market, too? Our iPad 2 is only about 5 years old.
In the office, the PC replacement cycle has been about 3 years. And the iPhone replacement cycle has been about 2 years. What is the iPad replacement cycle?
I don't know yet, since I haven't felt the need to replace mine yet. But I would guess it's about 7 years. Give the iPad a couple more years, and my guess is that its sales will pick up again. Because the tablet market is saturated now, and won't pick up again until the replacement cycle starts to kick in. Meanwhile, using a terminology I've written about here a couple times before, Apple's second and third screens abide, and continue to define Apple's prosperity and its market:
The first screen: the TV / home entertainment hub
The second screen: the primary computer
The third screen: the smart phone
The fourth screen: the smart watch
The iPad, like the secondary computers I have scattered throughout my house -- Mac minis, laptops, and iPads -- are useful but do not need to be updated as regularly as the must-have items listed above. The first and fourth screens remain growth opportunities. And not to tease this a third time, but there will be others, with user interfaces even more tightly integrated.
A 12" enhanced iPad might truly define a segment between the laptop and smartphone. I'm guessing that the recently reintroduced MacBook might be a step in that direction. Could it get a touch screen? Would that help? Would it point a way towards Apple's next tablet: a 12" iPad-laptop hybrid? Kinda like a Surface, except thought through somewhat better? I don't know yet. |
