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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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From: weatherguru4/8/2015 10:09:33 AM
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lightshipsailor

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Huh, I posted yesterday, and it never came through. I'll re-cap.

This month is dictated by lows making landfall on US Pacific coast. Rain for Cali all the up to Washington this month. These storms cross the mountains, regenerate on the alee side, leading to warm front/cold front variability east of Rockies. Thunderstorms along the fronts, some severe. Essentially this is a baroclinic set-up, which in theory should be well simulated by the models. Listen to models 1-3 days in advance for potential severe weather.

On the longer range forecast, I see a massive ridge of high pressure over Kansas on April 26. This is solar related. Huge. This will allow lows off Pacific to crash into California...flooding scenario for them. This will create a large trough over west coast US. As the trough moves inland, this leads to an enhanced baroclinic scenario. A lot of variation...really warm ahead of the low (especially great lakes), and really cold behind the low (relative to average). Severe storms in nations mid-section from OK to PA around April 28. This should be a big event, that is, a large tornado outbreak. Flag this day. Gulp.

I think this event (April 26-28) is related to the last stratospheric final warming before breaking down the polar vortex.
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