The Pause Is Real – Get Over It!
April 8, 2015
By Paul Homewood
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2001/plot/rss/from:2001/trend
Whenever the pause in global warming is discussed, alarmists usually try to deflect attention by claiming it is the result of cherry picking the big El Nino year of 1998 as the starting point.
Step forward Mark Shapiro, who has either fallen for this propaganda trick, or is busy propagating it.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/04/06/satellite-temperatures-fall-again-in-march/#comment-41027
Although 1998 remains the warmest year on the satellite record, it has little effect on the trend since then, because it was followed by an equally cold, double La Nina in 1999/2000.
The UK Met Office were totally clear on this, in their report, “ The recent pause in global warming: What are the potential causes”, published in 2013.
On Page 6, they state:
The start of the current pause is difficult to determine precisely. Although 1998 is often quoted as the start of the current pause, this was an exceptionally warm year because of the largest El Niño in the instrumental record. This was followed by a strong La Niña event and a fall in global surface temperature of around 0.2oC (Figure 1), equivalent in magnitude to the average decadal warming trend in recent decades. It is only really since 2000 that the rise in global surface temperatures has paused.
So let’s see what has happened to satellite temperatures since 2000:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2001/plot/rss/from:2001/trend
There is actually a cooling trend. There were ENSO neutral conditions throughout 2001, which makes it a good place to start any comparisons. In contrast, last year had moderate El Nino conditions, which makes the declining trend even more remarkable.
Whether the pause began in 1997 or 2001, the fact remains that it is real, and not some statistical artifact. The logic of going back to 1997, is that this is the furthest you can go back to without finding a warming trend.
Mark Shapiro suggests that we should ignore the last 18 years with no increase in temperature, and instead focus on the rise since 1979. But nobody disputes the fact that temperatures rose from the late 1970’s to 1998, which was in large part due to the switch to the warm phase of the PDO, combined with the recovery of the AMO.
What clearly matters now though is the current pause, and what it tells us about temperature trends in the next few decades, particularly given the fact that the AMO has not begun to decline yet.
notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com
lvjcr08 permalink
April 8, 2015 5:40 pm
A man was born in 1979. By 1997 he was 6 feet tall. Since 1997 he has remained 6 feet tall.
However based upon his growth trend I can expect him to soar to 8 feet tall shortly.
............
Will Janoschka permalink
April 8, 2015 8:00 pm
Indeed. The past 17 years clearly demonstrate that increasing atmospheric accumulated CO2 levels does not contribute to any increase in surface temperature. This Coal is bad, must now be over!!!. It is clear that coal is merely trees that have caught fire yet.
AndyG55 permalink
April 8, 2015 8:11 pm
I prefer to think of coal usage as returning carbon back into the shorter term carbon cycle from where it got accidentally sequestered.
The more carbon in the carbon cycle, the better for all life on Earth…
… because that is what life as we know it, is built around |
