scott,
Very disappointing news. As far as the impact on trading tomorrow, I suspect we may see a pattern similar to Anesta (NSTA) a month ago (which I know you are familiar with). In the case of Anesta, the company had received committee recommendation on their drug Actiq, but was rejected by the FDA anyway. The stock, which had last traded around 20 1/8 opened around 12 1/2, then traded up from there to close at about 17. Looking at the NSTA chart you can see the trading pattern:
exchange2000.com
Similar to DEPO, there was a general expectation that they would receive approval, because they had received unanimous committee recommendation.
DEPO is many respects presents a stronger case because of the other drugs in its pipeline. Since there was previous mention of the relatively small sampling for DepoCyt, there is the possibility that further studies would provide proof of improved efficacy. Though we didn't get the proof of concept for DepoFoam technology DepoCyt approval would have provided, the technology is still presumably viable.
My guess is that the stock will open down at or near its low and then move back up some from there. As with Anesta, some will be buying and trading the panic-driven open. I'm expecting some mitigating words and damage control at the press conference that should give the stock some lift.
I think the NSTA model might provide a worst case scenario on the opening, since it was a comparable "out of the blue" surprise. That would suggest a drop of perhaps 40% at the open or around $5--that would suggest an opening around $9. If DEPO then recovers during the day (as I think it will), it might end up down about 15% on the day--around $11.
Though it is very hard to stomach this, I don't think the drop tomorrow will be as cataclysmic as some are fearing now. I think holding on at least through the conference call is likely to turn out better than trying to sell at the open. If the call is reasonably positive in presenting where the company goes from here, I think the stock will recover much of its early loss.
We'll see.
Baird |
