Hi Steve:
I truly understand your frustration with BTT. This is my second go round with them. I had the service previously for three years, failed miserably, and finally quit it. I can't speak to the reasons BTT isn't working for you, but I will list what I did wrong below, and I bet you will be guilty of at least some of my mistakes. I didn't follow their methods, but instead thought I was smarter than them because I had been studying this stock stuff for over 15 years and tried to apply what I thought was a "better way" instead of doing what they recommended.
So here are my PRIMARY mistakes as I reflect back on them.
1. I was overwhelmed by the amount of information they sent daily and so I either just skimmed the daily reports or else didn't read them at all. When I canceled the service after 3 years (3 x 52 x 5 reports/wk = 780) I had received roughly 800 messages from them. Of those, nearly 350 or half of the messages had never even been opened.
2. I rarely bought at the LP, instead buying after the market had begun to accelerate. This caused even the smallest shakeout or reaction to hit my stops, usually for a loss.
3. On several occasions I held on to stocks way, way after they had dropped below their exit points because I didn't want to take the hit to my account. Keep in mind I entered at the wrong places to begin with, so I didn't even have the cushion of a little profit from the LP to help ease the blow. It got to the point twice where I didn't even want to look at the price daily because I was afraid to see how much more I had lost. Finally I closed those losing positions, and as many will probably guess, they proceeded to rocket back up from a very oversold position (NOTE: 1 stock didn't and has now since been delisted).
4. On the occasions when I was holding winning positions, I would monitor the positions throughout the day and often would close out what was a good choice on a small shake out. You can only determine what is a small shake out IN RETROSPECT. While it is happening it will look like the bottom is falling out, and you will panic every time. Many of those positions went on to be over 100% gainers AFTER I got shook out of my position. This is a very hard habit to break. Even now, I fall back into this habit from time to time. I owned #B last year, and although I took a reasonable profit out of it (37%), it is now up over 150% from MY purchase price. One could argue I actually made a reasonable decision to sell just before the big decline in October. You will never get 100% gains thinking like that though. The problem is then compounded because I never bought back in when it crossed back above the 10WMA (classic BTT repurchase).
5. I was too impatient to enter the market when I had extra cash, and would make purchases at non-ideal times. This would lead to buying a stock way above the LP, often when the market was beginning to be overbought. According to BTT the lowest risk times are when the market is moving from stage 4 to stage 3 or from stage 2 to stage 1. This only happens a few times per year, if that. It can be hard to wait.
6. I didn't follow any of the BTT rules.
So, now I am in my second go round with BTT, having been with the service about 18 months (renewal is in late summer). This time I am trying hard to avoid all of the above mistakes, but it is not easy. My account is +55ish% since that time, and I've left a lot on the table that could have made it much higher. Still, I am more than satisfied with their service.
My advice is check yourself against my mistakes above. Print out every report when you receive it and thoroughly read it, making notes or highlights around the most significant parts. Don't get frustrated when you miss buying a good one; there will be others. Keep your losses manageable. Try hard to let the profits run.
Roy |
