Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 142.62

+2.2%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3969)	12/18/1997 7:57:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Justa, RE: "Are you saying there is a recessionary threat in the USA from SEA situation? If so, how so? What probabilty do you assign such a scenario?" Yes. There has been much discussion by economists and market analysts about the possibility that overcapacity exists around the world and that this has held prices down in the face of falling unemployment. The SEA situation will decrease the market for US goods and will force US industries to compete with products dumped by the SEAs at prices which reflect their devalued currencies and dire need for hard currency (dollars). There is no doubt that next years GDP will suffer. Current estimates are a 0.5% reduction in growth rate, but no recession. I have little confidence in the current estimates. The negative impact of SEA is correct, but the magnitude is probably guesswork. A recession, 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, I believe, is made more likely by the high level of personal debt which has been exacerbated by financial institutions "pushing" credit cards. I would assign 50% to a US recession in 98-99. Cary

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