If everything was well managed, there would be no problem.
Here's an example of a poorly managed company from newsgroup comp.software.year-2000:
From: "Tom Schmidt" <jtsmad@itis.com>
Newsgroups: comp.software.year-2000
Subject: Re: Should I pull my money out now?
Date: 18 Dec 1997 06:11:20 GMT
Organization: OAS Software, Inc.
[...]
> Some systems are going to fail. But of those that do, most will be fixed
> within minutes, hours, or for noncritical systems, days. In a few cases,
> it will take longer. But this is no crisis--at least it won't be 2 years
> from now.
But those sentences set me off!
David, you've just exposed your incredible lack of knowledge on the
subject. We will be looking at critical software systems that have not had *any* maintenance performed on them in several DECADES. When they fail on or shortly after 2000/1/1, we will discover that the people "responsible" for support will *never* have seen them fail. We will discover (some number of hours later) that those same people (and their chain of command, such as it then is) will have _no_idea_ where the source materials can be found.
I've been in rooms where such things have happened, and have successfully(!) dealt with the situation by zapping/patching, etc. It is extremely intricate work and not for queasy stomachs. I can say - with experience and confidence - that some of those systems will be (1) critical and (2) down for days (perhaps forever.) [My favorite example, by the way, was a Univac II emulator (source lost) that ran Univac II object code (source lost) at a company on the West coast. Each year the company would consider whether to rewrite the system so that its maintenance exposure would be eliminated, and each year the study would show that the cost to rewrite had increased from the previous estimate. So each year they would continue to run the modules that were (in 1980) written 25 years before, with no source materials. I was involved, tangentially, with two problems in the two years I was with that company. There is no one there now who was around when it was written. In fact, there is no one there now who was around then the emulator was last updated, and the emulator came along over 10 years after the original programs were written in the mid-1950s. Yes, I'm positive there is a year 2000 exposure with that software. Those folks are in trouble... and they've had more time to be aware of that than most. Hmmm... maybe I should call them. Now (are you ready for this?) that particular suite of software, written originally for a Univac II, ran the very core of one of their three lines of business!! If it dies (and stays dead for a day) the company loses at least one million dollars per day in interest and penalties. And it will die. I understand they had some problems with the emulator when they converted to MVS/XA in 1983-4, but that they were able to patch it even though they had no source for the then 20-year-old emulator code.]
The problem with your view of the world is that you don't understand that those problems will happen with hideous frequency in computer rooms all across the globe. There aren't many people who can fix such problems and fewer still who will put up with the extreme b*llsh*t that (1) allows such problems to happen and (2) allows such management to bother and otherwise hinder the very people trying to fix things. To be sure, I've also been involved with crisis cases where the management understood and was very helpful... not all managers are stupid and inept; sometimes they inherit the mess and cope as best they can. I truly enjoy working with folks like that. (Any takers?)
[...]
The obvious question is "How many poorly managed companies are required to screw things up?" A not-quite-so-obvious question is "What will the fallout be from the poorly managing USA government messing things up in this arena?"
I do agree that Y2K stocks are over-valued. One who truely believes that Y2K will be a crisis should buy puts on the SP500, not Y2K stocks. A falling tide will lower all boats. |
