Steve, Definitely not wired but learning!
The only wire I have is that very thin strand holding my sanity
together.
One thing I have learned from the TA side is to pay more attention
to the weekly chart on stocks. Look at the weekly MACD on INTC.
It clearly shows that any buy decision since early October was
fighting a very defined trend. Good to learn for future ref.
I know that your playing more with the indexes and I can certainly
appreciate the concept. I haven't gotten there yet.
TRV and AXP are interesting stocks from a FA perspective. Neither
gets a very good score in my system, 6 and 4 respectively (out of 13).
Both have a similar PE of about 20. For TRV that's 50% higher than
its previous 5 year high PE. For AXP it's considerably below the
previous 5 year high.
TRV has done a better job of increasing revenue $5.1B (92) to $24.2
(TTM)while AXP $14.3B to $17.2B. But AXP has done a better job of
getting it down to EPS; .88 (92) to 4.34(TTM), while TRV 1.07 to
2.78.
The projected growth rate for TRV is slightly better, 14.9 vs. 13.9.
Moreover, the 97 to 98 change is projected at 18.9 for TRV vs. 14.5
for AXP. What is really interesting to me is that the Price to
Cash Flow of TRV is almost twice that of AXP, but this may be related
to their recent acquisitions. In an analysis I did this past summer,
TRV was one of only 78 of the S&P companies that increased their
EPS every year since 92.
Mr. Market clearly loves both stocks. AXP impressively beat the Index
6 years in a row and fidelity has a large position and was adding to
it in November. In fact, 8 of top 10 mutual funds were adding to
their positions in November. TRV beat the Index in all the last 6
years, except 94. Thus, TRV seems to be more interest rate
sensitive.
I wouldn't fight the trend in either stock. BWDIK. My 2 cents
worth.
Berney |
