Steve, I agree with both your points.. the first about standing back and not trying to catch the bottom and then 2nd about toy companies.
To the first point, like I said I'm holding back some $$$ for the "near bottom" on RADAF , whenever that may appear. And yes, on that thread are a few people who have actually typed "I love RADAF". Scary. Also, undying optimism on any thread is a red flag.
Id like to point out to you a stock you mentioned a few posts back, GECM. I am very bullish on this stock for next year, however be careful in any short term dealings... wait at least until earnings. They did an aquisition about a month ago and noted they will have a charge related to the aquisition. One of my best trades so far has been GECM, went from 11.00 to 14.75 (when I sold) in approx 3 weeks. I didnt get greedy and I sold; and it did go up to mid 15s I believe, but thats ok. Now its back to around 11.00 and with an acqusition that is going to make earnings even better next year (even without internal growth accounted for).. but I will wait until after next earnings to jump in.
Last, to your 2nd point.. Radica is not Cabbage Patch kids. Im not going to foresee the future and say Radica will have the best products or hottest products in a year. However, they are not a 1 product co. and actually it kind of amazes me how successful they are without really even "kids" toys. Im not a fisherman, but that fishing game to me at least seems geared more to adults than kids. They have new products coming out (including a sub game which I think kids would love) and more things in the pipeline. Also, remember.. the stock has had amazing performance without a single analyst following it and I believe 1 mutual fund owning it. I think that is quite amazing.
Yes, SI and IBD have decent sized followings, but its only tapping the edge of Radica's potential for discovery. Thats why I enjoy following stocks with a handful of mutual funds owning it.. lots of potential. (i.e. GECM has gone from 5 to 10 in the past 1.5 months) <Institutions move these stocks, not you or I> Once again, Im not saying RADAF is not going to go down maybe all the way to 10, who knows. All Im saying is dont paint all "toys" in one brush. I think anyone would be pretty content with owning Nintendo stock 10 years ago (its still around last I checked) =)
I read Rainer's post about stocks that have metoeritic rises, many times having meteoric falls (in relation to Radica). While that may be true.. I find it hard to believe that a co. with 1.36 in earnings and growing in the area of 50% will fall back to $1-$5 as I read his post possibly implying. Call me crazy like that ;) Not that RADICA is Microsoft or Cisco, but if he is waiting for Microsoft fall back to where it started he may be waiting a few years. Im bullish for the intermediate term on RADAF, the short term who knows.
Ok gentleman, we need shorts... Asia dying..slowly..then quickly..then slowly..then quickly. I just want a nice little Christmas rally to get into cash over the next 3 weeks.. is that asking so much?? Santa? Do you read this board? =)
Mark
(sorry this is so long!) |
