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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: gizwick who wrote (55240)4/24/2015 5:04:15 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 78744
 
BBX. Also tendered all my shares, expecting company to purchase 4M of 7M float -- or, as you say, about 40% to be returned.

TBD how profitable this might be. It's likely there are people who bought the shares purposely to try to capture the tender offer. With a view that what isn't taken, they will sell. Plus, there are longer-term shareholders who will have the view of "bird in the hand...can't go wrong taking a profit", and they will tender. As a consequence, I expect the stock to fall sharply after the results of the tender are announced. (I can't believe the tender offer will be undersubscribed.) In my experience with these things, in all cases but one, the stock has dropped back below the stock price on last day of the tender offer. I expect the stock (closed today at $19.14) to quickly drop back to $14 area, where I expect I'll reacquire the shares that got picked up. While this BBX/BFCF thing remains complicated to me, maybe if there are enough knowledgeable people who believe the tender is about the greatest thing to happen to BBX, maybe I'm wrong and the stock price will stay up.
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