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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 142.62+2.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (3972)12/19/1997 1:18:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Ian,

RE: "Respectfully, I must disagree with a 50% probability of a US recession in 98 - 99, especially if you believe SEA effects will be the cause."

I assume from your list that you think 50% is too high.

RE: "I fully agree that the world growth will be less than it could have been without the banking crisis in SEA; I doubt that there'll be a recession. I do believe that growth will continue at a more sustainable pace."

You seem to be agreeing that there will be an economic slowdown. I am surprised that you have difficulty with a 50% recession possibility considering the length of the business expansion and the severity of the SEA problems.

Cary
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