Donald,
Looks to me that XOI has further to drop, but if you look at 3-5 year data on the index, it seems to be making a major test of the 200 EMA. You could say that since it's pierced and bounced off of it from below that it's failed, but in all cases over the past 3 years when the 200 EMA has turned down, we've pierced it, then had a strong rebound. If it bounces here and acts anything like it has in the past 3 years, it seems like it could move up sharply. On the other hand, short term analysis seems to indicate a move down tomorrow. Stochastics headed down, but not extremely oversold, unhealthy looking candlesticks, and futures indicating a negative open.
Please, anyone reading this, understand that I'm only learning, and take this as pure speculation.
I just looked at Japan down over 5% at 15,328, and I have to add to my post. STRONGLY negative open tomorrow.
Thanks,
Mike |
