INDEX UPDATE
-------------------------------
Firstly I need to urgently address the XOI since I am aware some are following this trade. I had originally set my stop-loss at 448 but I also did not sell since I noticed that although the market was down most of the day the XOI was one of the strongest indexes along with the PNX, UTY(due drop in rates), SOX(surprisingly).
The XOI was holding well untill the DOW dropped below 100 points for the day, then it intensified.
So the technical delayed dip did work, but I did not feel that it would drop so hard intraday, since the SOx and some other HiTechs were
acting relatively well. What I mean by that is that in the recent past the HiTechs (NASDAQ) was moving down faster than the Non-HiTechs, but yesterday the NAZ was moving right in line with the DOW with the SOX holding on well, only closing down 1 point with the DOW closing down over 100. So this was the basic reason for not selling the XOI calls.
As for the TECHNICAL DELAYED DIP, it is definitely working - but the key now is that will the recent bottom of last week hold. Using the DOW as the guide, the bottom would be 7788.
Firstly - Yesterday I had indicated that I felt that the lows for yesterday would be the turn around point, and the DOW got down to 7810 intraday. Well in light of the futures now - WRONG. We should be going lower than 7810, but will we settle around 7780 range(closing basis). It is quite possible that we will go lower intraday than 7780, but not too much(say another 20-30 points).
My initial feeling even in light of the futures being down 13 is yes that the 7780 level will hold on a closing basis, so far. The reason I feel that is per my GUITAR calculations, there is a good possibility that some of the HiTech sectors may not sell off that much more, not that it has so much strength, but since it is so low. Subjectively, looking at the SOX as an example - do many believe that this sector is strong now, dont think so. But why was it only down 1 point - I just have to conclude subjectively that it is because the overall market yesterday felt it was at the bottom.
Ok, now one of the main keys I will be looking for today to help substantiate my position that the 7788 support area will hold is how well the SOX and other HiTech sectors hold up. Piercing the previous bottoms - I will interpret such that the support of 7788 for the DOW will not hold.
SOX 248/243
NDX 1508
XCI 420
IIX 245/236
SPX 947 (mentioned it since it is a broad market indicator)
As for XOI there is a support line at 243, and if the HiTechs hold I feel that the XOI may hold it also.
If these supports hold, we could see a pop up on Monday or as soon as today.
I will try to keep updates intraday
Seeya |
