Opposition win positive?
Glenn,
I can only submit my very personal take. Please go read the article on Asian troubles on MSN Investor dated 12/16 by Jim Kurlak. The 2nd part of this will be published today. It's making v.g. sense to me.
The basic point he's making, at least for Korea, is that the private sector has been collapsing due to too close fraternizing among big biz and poitics. Capital has been allocated in unefficient ways, etc.
Profiting from all this was a close-knit elite, the usual family conglomerates etc. "Normal" people seem to have been left out in the cold anyway. But these people have now voted for political change, since the understanding seems to be that the old ways lead to collapse.
Now, I cannot confirm whether Kurlak is right. But that something went wrong in Korea is clearly obvious. I do also have no particular personal assessment to offer at this point as to how intrenched the new President is with the old system or whether is is relatively untainted (reminds me a bit of the situation in Russia). We don't know yet how hard necessary reforms will be driven for or how much political determination there is for reforms.
It would seem to me, however, that the people of S. Korea have said "Thank you, we've seen enough of the old fellows, let's try the other one now." While this is quite possibly not the ideal candidate, it may be the one-eyed among the blind. Again, in Russia it was a similar situation at the last presidential elections: The neo-communist Zyuganov did not come through, allthough everybody would readily admit the Jelzin and Chernomyrdin couple is not a dream-team either. Probably there are no dream-team anyway in these situations.
So I basically welcome the change per se. This is why I feel rather positive about the outcome of these elections. But really JMHO.
Aside, why do you expect such a high-volume day today? Also because of options expirations?
Thomas |
