S&P Index Futures (Daytrading SP) Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : S&P Index Futures (Daytrading SP)

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: VALUESPEC who wrote (131)	12/19/1997 8:14:00 AM
From: VALUESPEC	Read Replies (1) of 350

s&p is only down -9.60 now. My futures broker says that the market has never corrected more than 10% when interest rates were falling. That would bring the s&p to about 900. This moring interest rates hit lows, again (bonds are going up in value). We have what I believe is an unprecidented war between the up forces and down forces as follows: Up forces: A) Great sums of money going into retirement accounts B) Great sums of money going into bonds for both safety and to lock in yeilds before Deflation sets in as some expect. Lower bond prices make stocks more attractive. C) With other world markets being so crazy, the US markets look like a relatively safe place to be; hence, more money chases the US markets helping to drive them higher. Down forces: a) shrinking corporate earnings due to asian problems and world currency valuations (v. strong $ makes US $ profits smaller) The down forces still have formidable foes. Who will win? I'm not sure. I'll stick with the up trend theory until it is broken and stays that way. What is needed to really break the up trend? Well, I think we already have the foundation for it being set. Following is what I think is needed to finally break this up trend: 1) The individuals must be concerned enough to stop putting money into stocks. That will probably take a sustained number of shocks and widespread downgrades. What kind of shocks? a) HK $ devaluation b) the asian problems getting much worse i.e. much, much more money needed than $ 100 bil for Korea., US companies reporting dismal earnings the following quarter c) communism coming back to Russia, Israel being attacked, Japan being foreced into cashing in a very large % of it US bonds to cover its problems at home 2) The foreigners begin to feel that the US markets are not as safe and withdraw funds (I'm not sure how much damage that would do). Anyway, I'm looking for a buying opportunity, but it may be that many others have the same idea. I only plan to buy and then sell as I don't trust this market. I could ralley hard after it comes back, or fall hard. I don't want to stick around to find out (I guess it could also open lower and then meander) VS s&p 954.70 -10.40

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next