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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 38.16+2.5%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST
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To: Paul Engel who wrote (42836)12/19/1997 8:58:00 AM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Re; Compaq sub-zeros. (Numbers derived by me from IDC reports).
My estimate is that Compaq will ship 15-20% of it's product as sub-zeros. Of course this will be less than 10% of "sales" But it does represent a trend. Also, more than 50% of their shipments are into homes!
W/W shipments
Compaq's Q3'97 W/W shipments of PC's was 2.7 Mil units. Total all Q3'97 PC's shipped was 19.6 mil units. Q4 shipments are estimated up 20% year to year, and if the share is constant, Compaq will ship approx. 3 Mil units and total will be approx. 21 Mil.
Home PC's
Compaq shipped 1.6 Mil units into the home market in Q3, and W/W home PC's were 8.4 mil units for this quarter.
Estimates of Q4 home PC shipments are Compaq, 1.7 Mil units and W/W 9 mil units.
(Note that 58% of Compaq's Q3 shipments were into the home market, while W/W only 43% went into homes).
In the home PC market alone it's estimated more than 5 Mil sub-zeros will ship in 2H'97. Compaq has 19% of the home PC market.
Now for some conjecture.
If Compaq captures 20% of the 2H Home PC sub-zeros, we're looking at 1 Mil units, or 17% of Compaq's total shipments. Based on Compaq being the dominant supplier of Cyrix mediaGX, and all the sub-zero P54/55 166/200 MHZ units they have shipped, I wouldn't be surprised if this number is higher.
I also think there are significant numbers of sub-0's going into the SOHO market.
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