Berney, which trend is our friend?
When WE maked mistakes during the last month, wasn't we SURE that a turnover of hitech-selling would stand before us?
You're right with "weekly charts", but, sorry, I was looking at weekly charts, I was considering "AIMISS" (American Investors Mentality including soft suspensorium :), but, as everybody can see, I was wrong.
But sometimes, if I'm "losing my religion", I remember WHERE the thanks to Intel burned money came from - when I lost ALL my current Intel-calls, I would have lost not more than the gain of 1 (one) happy trade made during July with an Intel-call. (about 50k)
When hope comes again, I think (VERY carefully and normally very private) over how much this (latest 25k...) engagement (of 140 calls) will bring back if Intel would be valuated on a P/E of - say 25? - after the next 2 earnings, in April. That's the kind of hope I use to stand all this TV-stammering.
A former friend of my mother used to say "ein vers„umtes Kn”pfchen kann niemand nachholen". I cannot translate this out of several causes. Not exactly it means that you will not get a chance a second time. Maybe you will get similar chances - but you cannot repeat this single chance you've missed to take. For me it's clear that a discussion of past mistakes cannot help, cause markets are NOT cyclical IMHO.
What COULD help was a prediction, how far this downtrend will continue and when a period of uptrend will start. But I was at least twice wrong, you was wrong, probably NOBODY knows something (exept a handful of insiders) - even if a lot of smart guys earn their money by making as if they would know something.
Let's see in the future - that's the one and only region where we have the chance to share the curbs of manipulations.
Bob send me this link www.idcresearch.com, maybe you remember that I posted shortly their 15%-growing-prediction for 98. It's very interesting for me what they have to say, even if they missed to consider the usual matter of fact that not only the single parameter, who just is in discussions, will change, but ALL related parameters, and that there is a interference between all these changes. I guess, most of them are business-graduated people, and their mathematics and systemtheories have the level of a average mom. But, however, they serve a lot of information and ideas, a good base for elaborating a more probable picture of the next future of tech.
Have a good day - and I hope, you've sold all Dec-calls a long time ago!
Jury |
