S & P revised it's outlook on NVX's credit rating from "stable" to "negative"and affirmed its single B ................. blah, blah , blah, ratings.
My comment: So what . NVX won't be doing any public debt financing in the foreseeable future, if ever.
S & P than states:
" The outlook revision relates to S & P's increased concern regarding the potential commercial success of the company's most significant U.S. product prospect."
My comment: WOW! Really, How can they have any better handle on what success NVX/Abbott will have in marketing the product than we who arrive at a different conclusion . Perhaps they get their input from the competition . Possible I guess. Or they get it from the AAP. Not so likely. Or they get it from the CDC. Not likely. Or they are being USED bigtime by the people behind the 4 million shares short.
Based on their uncanning timing of this news I'd say . HIGHLY PROBABLE. Is it coincidence that their comments ,match what has shown up in a certain medical news letter that recommends shorting the stock ? I don't think so.
S & P says: " The company's most significant product is a patented, monocomponent acellular pertussis vaccine that it believes will significantly reduce the incidence of adverse reactions associated with current whole-cell pertussis vaccines."
My comment: Whom ever wrote this didn't go to the trouble to find out that NVX has presented extensive data to the FDA that shows that NVX has elliminated "serious adverse events" that are associated with ,not just the old whole-cell pertussis vaccine, but the current new DTaP vaccines that are now on the market.
Than S & P says: " However, U.S. regulatory approval has taken longer than expected, giving several competitors a lead in this important market and preventing the generation of positive funds flow. Still the company has more than $50 million in cash flow....................etc.'
My comment: First off is the fact that the Federal Government accounts for upwards of 60% of the market for this vaccine. NVX will get their share of that for sure. Second; There are only two competitors out there. Connaught and Lederle. Neither can support any claim that they are more effective than NVX and NVX can show that they are far safer. Only time will tell just what impact the safety issue will have on the DTaP market. But if you have followed the history of the DTaP development you would know that SAFETY was the issue. S & P for sure doesn't know it. I'll write that off to blatant, irresponsible ignorance. The safest vaccine will ultimately win out. One publicized serious adverse event and the competitors are history. It happened in all their trials . It will happen again as it is happening now to a 3rd competitor in Sweden. Wake up S & P.
S & P bases their " negative outlook" on the following statement: " The inability of the company and it's marketing partner Abbott Labs to commercialize and differentiate DTaP in the U.S. marketplace .................."
MY comment: Standard and Poors, Just because you failed to see the difference doesn't mean the rest of the world is blind. SAFETY, SAFETY, SAFETY.
Ask any mother.
In summary: I just down graded my opinion of the Standard & Poor services from Cautious to AVOID. (I know they don't know what they are talking about here, how does one know when they do?) :-}. |
